For the first time in recent memory, all of the leading manufacturers in the highly competitive field of magnetic disk drives agree on something. Unfortunately, it isn’t good news. With current technology and materials, we will soon witness the end of 120 percent per year improvements in disk drive areal density. Areal density refers to the number of bits that can be stored on a square inch of disk media. It appears, we hit the wall at 150 gigabits per square inch (150 Gb/in2). With current disk density growth rates, that will happen within the next three to five years.

Unfortunately, new drive designs and read/write techniques -- including thermally-assisted drives, perpendicular recording, and an assortment of near- and far-field technologies -- are about a decade off. A lot of research shows promise and some technologies have been demonstrated under laboratory conditions, but most insiders agree that it will take many years to bring products to market based on these new designs.